Israel, Hamas, Fatah

Israel now has a fundamentalist radical Islamist government on its border, Hamas in Gaza, which is by policy statement dedicated to the destruction of Israel. Fatah, while more moderate in its policies, is lead by a weakened party apparatus and its control of the West Bank is scarcely a given. The Palestinian fracture presents both threat and opportunity. Something more intelligent than the previous US policies is required to take advantage of opportunities and avoid catastrophes.

The data regarding failed states and the rise of radicalism is clear, just as is the correlation between successful states and social stability. These relationships are more constant than anything regarding religions, culture, or other societal influences. There is a real key to policy decisions in this. Consider the rise of Hamas in Gaza; it was a real option in the face of Fatah corruption and economic failure and lack of progress with Israel. The corruption of Fatah was its own doing and may have relationships to the economic failure of the Palestinians, but other elements made greater impacts. While Fatah failed to adequately control attacks on Israel, Israel’s own policies fueled the attacks. A state that cannot employ its people and trade its goods is going to fail economically and from there, politically. Israel is THE trading opportunity and employment pool, if they cut that to the bone, their neighbor is going to fail. The Palestinians are not just going to go away from a failed state, they are going to still be there and be furious.

Israel certainly faces difficulties with Palestinian terrorists in Gaza and the West Bank infiltrating them but seem caught in a Catch 22 situation, open borders allow terrorist infiltration, closed borders cause economic desperation in the territories. Israel must begin to see to providing an opportunity for the Palestinians to have some form of economic prosperity. Israel is not alone in this quandary, the US policy of blocking or refusing aid to the Palestinian Authority due to the participation of Hamas has now put Hamas in control of Gaza through the disintegration of the Palestinian economy and with it their social structure. At this juncture it would be possible to play the West Bank against Gaza by providing aid and social restructuring to the West Bank and improving their situation as a comparison for the probable failure of Gaza under Hamas. The trick, of course, is to smother the corruption of Fatah. This means a real on site presence.

Israel can no longer be allowed to operate with a whip hand only in its relations with the Palestinians and must begin to redress some of real grievances of the Palestinians. This means US politicians are going to have to face the Israeli lobby in our political arena.