Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Bernanke Expects Rebound

This AP story has Bernanke stating that the problems causing poor performance this year - including a bloated trade deficit, cutbacks by businesses in inventory investment and weak federal defense spending _ "seem likely to be at least partially reversed in the near term." However the real estate bust "appears likely to remain a drag on economic growth for somewhat longer than previously expected."

Let's stop to think about this for a minute, whose economy is supposed to improve? If you miss being in the top 10% of the economy you might want to consider yourself left out of that equation. The reason is that it's plain hooey. The economy is measured in various ways, one way is average income - Bush is up on that scale, but it's nonsense, what counts is the median (if you like these kinds of measurements) and that is lower than when Bush took office. If you're reading this blog, chances are real good the median has bearing on you.

You say you like the Dow averages? Well, under Clinton it tripled, under BushCo it is at 16%, adjusted for inflation that's less than zero. Surely all those rich people took their tax breaks and put them to work...well they certainly did, but it went to work swapping paper around. Paper? Yes, debt transfers, company acquisitions, moving through companies that are no more than shells for foreign manufacturing, PAPER. The housing market boom was paper, simply debt transfer, there is money all over the place, the problem is it reflects exactly nothing.

That refinanced house is still the same house, it is no more than it was before it suddenly generated more cash. The money from that house will go through the same channels the rich breaks went through - essentially nowhere. Housing sales financed new homes? The site jobs pay about $0.50 on the 1984 $1.00 and the finished products inside are largely out-sourced and the materials mostly foreign. If you work for a company take a look at where the money goes, look carefully and you will see that very little of it winds up backed up by anything in this country.

I make every attempt to buy American products and yet my life is flooded with foreign manufactured items. Of the indigenous products their foreign components are impossible to determine and even then the question of whether legal hiring practices have been followed is open to question.

Thanks, Ben. I'm glad to know that everything is going to be just fine. PAH


KISS said...

Before getting giddy over the expertise of Clinton, his remarkable clearing the National Debt and obtaining a surplus was done through devastation of welfare and cutting back on the food stamp program. He also ruined the infrastructure by no longer funding mandated sewer and water upgrades. The freeways funds were cut back drastically under his administration. Someday we will read the book on just how terrible Clinton was...at least with Bush it is neon light illuminating his deceit and stupidity.

Chuck Butcher said...

We could also talk about NAFTA and other problems. Or illegal hiring, there's plenty. Some there was little he could have done anything about with a Republican Congress - but...