Monday, September 08, 2008

Why Is This Race Close?

Maybe it's my left Democratic viewpoint but I do not understand how this race is anything like close. Sure, it could be a polling malfunction; there is the cell/no landline aspect or maybe only the respective bases have made up their minds or - a lot of things. Polls have gotten quite a bit right, so taking them as reasonable, what is going on? I'll qualify my reactions a bit more, I'm 55 and a political junkie and have been essentially since forever.

George W Bush, the premier Republican, has favorable ratings at the bottom of the toilet, with the other stuff than sinks and Republicans generically are near him. So far most of this makes sense, the Republicans had control of Congress for nearly a dozen years and the Presidency and Congress for 6 years and the results are here for everyone to admire. A bunch of Republican Congress people are in serious doo-doo this time around and where is McCain? In a tie, slightly or greatly ahead. Huh?

I've listened to most of what John McCain has had to say, admittedly with a very critical ear, and what I've heard that would seem to resonate with Americans is drill oil and win war in Iraq. Like all junkies, Americans are suckers for a quick fix, drill isn't but it has been made to look like it. No country likes to lose a war or, more accurately, not win one; and this is especially true of the most militarily powerful nation in the world. The thing is that these votes are fairly small potatoes. I understand that McPOW gets George II's 28% by default, he's not a Democrat, and even if he got the entire Republican registration that's quite less than 40% of the voters. Racism may play a factor, but a large chunk of that is already Republican and another chunk is non-voting, though that doesn't say some Democratic votes won't go that way. VPs make some difference, but in this one I'd say Palin appeals to the (R) fundie base. If the issue is experience, McPOW ought to be on the (R) wrong side of the equation. Can the McMaverick theme really be getting that much play? The 2000 Straight Talk Express is now only a name, is that enough?

The media certainly has a stake in this thing being close, just plain economics say so. Oddly enough, they're seen as 'in the tank' for Obama. McPOW campaign has been making that claim, regularly, and I suppose if it is minutes of exposure with no relationship to positive that could be seen as true. The media's credibility is so crappy that if they're seen as favoring something that something is discredited by an awfully large number of people.

The economy flatly sucks eggs and worse news comes out daily. George II just got done prediction better times near and within days unemployment rates are shown at a 5 year high and Fannie May and Freddie Mac are "Federalized." McPOW proposes more of the same economic policies. You cannot find daylight between him and George II. There isn't a domestic policy issue where he shows any particular difference. The economy is issue #1 with Americans and that one ought to sink McPOW.

POW. It is endlessly paraded that McPOW was a POW, sufficiently so that I've (obviously) decided it is his name. Can that possibly be an issue of sufficient import to bring him close? It is held up as a matter of character, thirty some years ago. I expect that at some point Americans are going to ask, "Yes, and so?" I'd sure hope so; considering the number of POWs around and only one is running on it.

Obama is different, there is his name and then there is his complexion and to be sure there is the Reverend Wright. It could be that his very ability as an orator could be a difference that counts - negatively, much in the nature of the perception of used car salesmen. Much has been made of experience and to some effect. There is plenty of bleed over from the Democratic Primary with its ineligible voters. When big dogs of both Parties have the same thing to say, it can seem to hold water, though the outsider label ought to be appealing considering the mess insiders have made for us. The Hilloon dead-enders are a noisy and, in the end, a minuscule number.

What you would seem to have to come up with to explain this closeness is to pile all Obama's supposed weaknesses into a very large pile of very lethal consequences to overcome what should be very huge negatives for McPOW. Even with my political leanings I've been able to see what works for others not of anything like my orientation, Gordon Smith, for example. I know he plays the fake bipartisan moderate when election time roles around and big money likes him and supports with dollars his campaigns. I know that when the Republicans can afford it they let him take a different stance, and it is all evident, and it has worked. Some of the media are complicit in it, they do little to no checking of him. I've tried to look at this campaign with clear eyes because it makes a difference in political operations to understand - I don't.

1 comment:

torridjoe said...

it's not close; don't be fooled by tracking polls and convention bounces. Where it counts--in the states--Obama is comfortably ahead, currently over 300 projected EVs.

It's all good. It's not that close, even at McCain's highest point where he is now.