Monday, April 16, 2007

Fun With Polls

I don't place a great deal of stock in Presidential polls nearly a year before a vote, but they can give a sense of what's going on. The Republican picture is a mess, a few "ifs" and the thing goes all over the place. Giuliani had a 16 point lead which McCain has cut to 6 points, unless Fred Thompson or Gingrich get in, if they do, the lead drops to 3 points; 27-24. Thomson gets 11% or 12% without Gingrich who gets 8% or 10% without Thompson. Mitt would be in 4th with them at 10%. 13% have no idea who to vote for. I'm glad I don't have to pick from that mess.

Democrats are seeing some shifts, Hillary 36% - Obama 28% and Edwards at 15%, Richardson & Clark 3%; a Gore entry at 15% would cut into Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. GOP error 5% and Democratic error 4%. CNN poll through Opinion Research Corporation - D 498, R 368.

I won't pretend to understand the Republican poll, I think Giuliani is going to have problems once this goes past NYNY's 9/11 Mayor, but that presumes something like a reasonable ( not really ) response from R voters.

Hillary Clinton continues to cruise on BILL's name, that's not going to last since she will have to say what she wants said, and she's not Billary. Obama has charm, the question is whether it will generate large numbers of hardcore support or if he can produce policy points that will. Edwards needs media attention as a front runner, their validation to get his policy points to stick, Richardson is in worse condition on the media front, he needs to be taken seriously.

What strikes me as ludicrous is that the Democrats have such a strong field that the short support ones, Clark & Richardson, are head and shoulders above "the best" the R's have to offer. While I have reservations about all the Democrats (ok huge ones about Hillary) they all (except Hillary) would make good candidates. So we're clear, I didn't start to dislike her until she was Sen. Clinton, that one I don't like.

What I see from the Democrats is that there is room for several to do much better if the field shortens, I don't believe much of any support for the tier under Obama would go to Clinton. In fact, as the campaign goes forward and Hillary's "inevitability" evaporates I expect her percentage to fall, her earlier 37% may be the highest she will have and that would not carry her through. 63% if the poll is not hers at her best and I don't believe any of that 63% would go her way with a viable alternative. At a convention, those votes will go elsewhere, with this polling - as previous as it is - Edwards and Obama look to be the likely beneficiaries.

Fun with polls, we may be seeing some trends, but the serious campaigning has yet to begin and there will be some movement with policies coming out and the personalities getting more exposure.


Steve Culley said...

Polls right now? Don't think so because some major votes on open borders and guns are coming up.
New York candidates? If you are pro abortion, anti gun and open borders then all of the New York big shots are on the right wing shit list, be it Republican or Democrat. Obama will have to vote too.

Chuck Butcher said...

The polls say some things, I agree that they are not predictive at this stage.