Friday, September 14, 2007

Lamont Vs. Lieberman

I've wondered over the past year how the Connecticut voters felt about electing Joe Lieberman(I) once it was an accomplished fact and BushCo's war dragged on ... and on ... and on, with good ole Joe cheerleading all the way. There sure was a lot of kicking at Democrats and other left organizations about the Primary results, mostly to the effect that they were a bunch of spoiled children. It seems they weren't, what they were was ahead of the curve.

Daily Kos commissioned a poll regarding votes if the election were held today, the poll was conducted by Research 2000 and the results are rather interesting. 600 likely voters who vote regularly in State elections were polled by telephone, statewide. On whom they voted for : All - Lieberman 49, Lamont 42, Schlesinger 9 (the Republican guy); Democrats - Li 32, La 64, Sc 4; Republicans - Li 67, La 10, Sc 23; Independents - Li 53, La 41, Sc 6. That was then, 2006.

Now, 2007 : All - Li 40, La 48, Sc 10; Dem - Li 25, La 72, Sc 3; Rep - Li 69, La 7, Sc 24; Ind - Li 38, La 49, Sc 9. R2K states +/-4%

Apparently Republicans have somewhat hardened in their view of Iraq, with Lamont showing a 3% drop, by age groups 45-59 and 60+ show the most enthusiasm for Joe, though it has softened by 7&8 respectively.

What this shows is the risk not of challenging an incumbent Democrat in a primary, but rather the importance of a convincing campaign - first, and second not getting there ahead of the voters. Getting there ahead of the voters in the 2006 election poses a difficult question, how did the Lamont campaign manage that?

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