Monday, June 02, 2008

Dangerous To Predict Hillary, So I Will

Making a prediction about any candidate's switch in direction is pretty risky; I submit that with Hillary Clinton it is particularly risky. Since a dropped ball on that score is unlikely to harm my national prominence (how many Iraq war boosters lost their jobs?) I think I'll risk it.

I believe that Hillary will follow up the Tue Primaries with applause for her campaign and warm words for her supporters. She will note that she believes she's the one to get the best results and that Obama can win if we all pull together now that she has suspended her campaign. I believe the concession will be that Obama seems to have the delegates and she will begin to work to ensure a Democratic victory in November.

Suspension will be a matter of practicality, campaign debts that need to be retired. She will be able to piggy back appearances for November with appeals to help retire her historic campaign's debts. There is nothing contradictory in this nor is there something distasteful in it. Whatever you think of Hillary and her campaign, it has been a very close election and this is the first time any woman has had a credible shot at being a Presidential nominee. The campaign deserves to be able to retire as much of its debt as it can.

People have predicted or advocated Hillary taking the race to the Convention. Hillary may well believe that the Democratic Party's chances are reduced by Obama; but that does not mean that she is not surrounded by political professionals. The pros look at the Democratic Party and know the costs of a split Party going forward. The pros look at that and know who will get the blame for even the appearance of a Party split and do not want that for Clinton.

The political reality of these two candidates is that there is not enough difference in their policy ideas for either to find the other insupportable. The over riding need of the Party for a strong candidacy will drive how things play from MT/SD to November. I am not stating nor could I what Hillary Clinton feels about the whole thing, I am trying to lay out the hard reasons for doing what I'm predicting.


Warren Terra said...

I hope you're right, of course, and suspending her campaign would be the logical thing to do, and if she is going to suspend before the convention, doing so within a few days after the last votes are cast is likely the last specific time point with a reasonable rationale.

The only problem is, so far in this campaign no-one has lost money betting that Clinton and her campaign will find a new way to dissapoint, a new low to achieve.

So, in summary: Fingers crossed ... but teeth clenched.

Chuck Butcher said...

Since I'm foolish enough to predict you might guess I'd take bets. Not on your life.