Saturday, January 21, 2012

SC Primary

On the basis of exit polling the media started calling the South Carolina Primary for Newt a couple minutes after the polls closed. With a third of the vote in it looks like 41 Newt, 26 Mitt, 18 Rick, 13 Ron. (50% in 40,27)

So, in ascending order the GOP has:
The Last Confederate Standing
Frothy Blah People (Google is your friend, with a strong stomach)
The Slimy Amphibian

And from this stellar field they propose to beat President Obama like a cheap drum with whoever is erect (sort of) after this Primary. Honestly, I was kinda hoping the GOP would give America a pretty clear choice between the fakery of a Plutocrat versus the Middle Black Guy (sure I'd like left versus their crazed right but you've got the President).

Exit polls showed Mr Multiple losing the electability issue, geewhiz - that's been almost his entire play, "at least I can run with Obama."

Now I'd like to point out to the Ron Paul cultists, you might be impressed with your 13% in a GOP Primary, but here's the reality - that is your possible vote, not one of the other GOPer's supporters would go your way and any other Party voters already did. Generously speaking, in a two Party system that means you all are at best 6% in South Carolina where your flag is still flown on the State House grounds. Contrast that with the rate of serious insanity in the US...6%.

Rick Santorum... who the hell knows what that is about or would go. Maybe he wants to be a VP or maybe God told him to save the cretins in this country from themselves. If it was God, not many other than Rick were listening.

I think the biggest question is what Mitt Romney does about the results from South Carolina. Both he and Newt Gingrich are fakes of improbably degree, but Newt is a hell of a lot better actor. Without saying much of anything of consequence Newt has scorched Mitt, taking him from over a ten point lead to maybe a seventeen point deficit and that would be a twenty seven point drop against Newt. Mitt is going to have to do something about that and what Newt has is tough to top by a Romney. Mitt is going to out dog whistle and out mean Newt? Mitt cannot "fire" Newt and his smug dismissal isn't going to work with that dog. Added to that Mitt has some idea that he can appeal to the not crazy part of the General Election and he cannot get there by trying to out-Newt Newt. Maybe Mitt's best course is to wait for Newt to pull the pin on a grenade and then drop it.

That gets to the point of people looking for Newt to implode in the Primary. If Newt doesn't say something "socialistic" it is hard for me to see where Newt loses votes from the ABMs. The GOP establishment can't stand Newt and will do what it can and their problem is that the ABMs do not give a damn or they'd not be ABMs. The South Carolina voters think Newt is more electable than Mitt and that is a pipe dream worthy of Ron Paul sponsorship. Newt's negatives nation wide are horrific and short of an economic implosion or other national catastrophe he'd be smashed.

This GOP Primary may be way more fun than the Lord of the Rings movie trilogy. (well, there is the part where they're competing to be Sauron) Buy lots of popcorn, this show may be pretty long.

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