Monday, March 27, 2006

Waldenbush VS ....

I've been quiet for awhile, four 10 hour days to get 40/week in crappy weather and many miles of driving have taken a toll on this blog. 1000 miles weekend of 3/18 and close to 600 mi weekend of 3/25.

I've been running some numbers through my head, the 75/25 and 70/30 losses to waldenbush in the last 2 elections. These results happened to 2 men I admire and respect who had good ideas. Along with those numbers are how things have to play for waldenbush to go home. A Democrat has to take all the Democratic vote, they can't "stay home" or have been insulted into voting against. In an ordinary election the Independents pretty much split, that's good enough for a serious thrashing, a Democrat has to get most of them. That still won't quite do it, some Republicans have to be split off from the herd. That's a tall order. The last 2 elections ought to make it pretty clear that being a nice person with good ideas won't do it. It must take more, GWB just wasn't THAT popular, his elections were near 50/50 splits, not 75/25.

Politics as usual is good enough to get a butt kicking, if that's the case then change the rules and the game changes. For waldenbush imcumbency, Party, and empty symbolic gestures have been enough to do the trick. If he runs on his voting record he has to count on party and gestures, if some of his Party favors are removed (2nd Ammendment for one) it counts for less. If his Party is shown to be a tool of plutocrats and multi-national corporations it looks less admirable. Is that enough? Probably not quite, but what might tip the balance is a candidate that comes from a direction waldenbush can't deal with. He can't pretend to be a member of the "ordinary" 2nd CD voters, he can't pretend to understand or even comprehend actual labor and he's shown no particular ability to speak plainly and straightforwardly. That might have a lot to do with why I'm running and why I say I can beat him, even with all his money.