Specter-Sestak Guesses

It is late enough to go ahead and guess and although I don't live in PA and haven't been there gauging sentiment I have some ideas. Primary elections are usually low turn out and mid-term ones are worse, add in that it is rainy in PA and this election turn out should be quite low. How turn out will affect the two campaigns has been an ongoing question. Some have proposed that the "machine" will win out for Specter with low turn out with their expertise, some that Sestak's dedicated enthused insurgent voters will come out.

I think one thing is over looked in the machine idea, that machine has been dedicated to beating Specter for years and years. The voters that you're supposed to be enthusing are the ones you've spent years enthusing to work against that guy. People do have memories and the more politically motivated the longer those memories last. Those people are going to be tough to get all hot to vote for the GOP "maverick" whose votes during Bush/Cheney were party line despite his talk otherwise.

Sestak is the insurgent, not that he's by any stretch an outsider and he's run as a Democrat. Insurgents get anywhere thanks to the enthusiasm of supporters, without machinery or the support of national organizations they will go nowhere fast without real enthusiasm from those supporters. Sestak is in a polling tie with Specter with all of the factors worked in other than who will actually go pull a lever.

My guess is that Sestak will benefit most from the weather and low turn out in general. I have no enthusiasm for Specter though he is preferable to Toomey.