I've been pretty good at this without any fancy tools, but this time I'm a bit nervous. I've told my nervous Democratic friends Obama by 5-7% and that large margin doesn't scare me. It's too wide as a prediction, so I'll cough up with one, Obama by 7%. Not only will I go there, but I'll call the Electoral College at 340 and frankly expect to miss by being low. The electoral college is a number that can explode with small vote shifts, the thing could go to the 400 neighborhood depending on no more than a few thousand votes in a few places.
Jeff Merkley is going to beat Gordon Smith by 3% unless E OR surprises me and pushes that number up. We've done what we could to limit the damage, we'll have to see.
Don't be surprised to not see a lot of other names here. Most of the other races are too far out of my political radar to do more than guess which is pointless. Our state wide Democrats should take all their races and that's as far as I'm willing to go. Kurt Schrader shouldn't have any problems putting away Erickson, but I won't hazzard a guess.
Feel free to toss in your $0.02 in the comments. I can take public ridicule for going out on this limb.
2 comments:
To a Chuck from another Chuck - I found it very interesting and entertaining that Karl Rove called the race for Obama, 338-200.
I did as well, I do think we're both low. Nice to see you CW
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