Friday, December 18, 2009

Democratic Political Disaster

Health Care Reform would be extremely hard under the best circumstances and none of those have been laid into place before this thing hit the fan. It should have been known in the Democratic Caucus what could fly. It should have been clear what the President was willing to sign. Consequences for Caucus obstruction should have been laid out clearly and absolutely. The vote should have been known.

The blame for this is all over the board, from President Obama to Freshman Senator.

Here's what that responsibility is going to entail. Voter turnout is always down in midterms and the most fickle voting groups are: 1) The Poor, 2) The Young, 3) Minorities. Those most impacted by what the current health care reform looks like are those folks and whether they will turn out depends on their enthusiasm, real enthusiasm. I think the most optimistic measure would be, "I don't care," and I think that is fairy tale land. Those Obama/Democratic demographics you were so proud of, bye-bye.

That in itself is horrid, but what about the activist wing? You know them, more left than mainstream out in the electorate trenches Democrats. Since the end of the Vietnam War the left has been almost endlessly faithful and forgiving of Democrats. There is noise and nose holding, but they do the part campaigns can't pay people to do. I do not know how that is going to go. I do know that in the face of the current mess it is going to be difficult to make arguments to them to bring in money and effort for Democratic majorities. We aren't as bad as the GOP isn't a real recipe for enthusiasm, true as it may be. You can try to make the case that the outrage around the apparent current Senate version of health care reform is limited to noisy bloggers and loon pundits. Um, polls are showing something different going on. If something is passed and signed, you still have to sell it as some kind of product. Much of this political year has been devoted to this mess and that means Democrats are stuck with having to sell it. Good luck with that one.

Older white voters do vote and that 25%+/- total loss Republican loon portion will also vote. That part of the demographic pretty much loathes Obama and anything they think he stands for. This puts you starting somewhat behind in the turn out game. You really need the activists out getting voters and you need them to carry a message that will get people out to the polls. The latest I've heard for a message is, George W Bush.


Dale said...

Exactly right on all points.

Aside from the details of policy, I am absolutely baffled by the sheer politics of this.

When Democrats force people to buy private insurance without putting adequate rules on the insurance and its pricing, it comes across as a straightforward tax increase, one that goes directly to some of the most hated companies in history.

Moreover, it means that the line between "what those asshole insurance companies did to me" and "what those asshole Democrats did to me" becomes impossible to find. It dissolves that line.

Democrats had a chance to stand up here. 60-vote majorities don't come along often. They're about to stand up and reveal what they truly are. I don't want to look.

If Obama and the rest of them think that not being Sarah Palin is going to assure them success in 2010 and 2012, they're astonishingly inept.

Jack Crow said...

Some confirmation of your thesis, Chuck.