Tuesday, May 06, 2008

North Carolina...And Then There Was Indiana

Barack Obama scored a blow out, 56/42, in North Carolina and conceded Indiana to Hillary, a bit early it seems. Hillary claimed victory in Indiana and vowed to go on to West Virginia and Kentucky and seat Michigan and Florida. At 9:00PM PST there is 91% of the vote in with Hillary leading by 20.8K out of 1.6M and falling. Lake Co, projected heavy Obama is not yet reported. Hillary was scheduled to make the morning talk shows - now all canceled.

Ballots are in Oregon homes or in the mail back to the State. We will have voted or be voting over the next two weeks, that judgement of Hillary will happen - whatever. Hillary is now behind where PA put her in popular vote and delegates with little room to go. W VA, KY, OR, SD, MT are all low population states and small delegate states. With MI/FL counted Hillary cannot win popular vote, delegate vote, or any other number available - especially money. Hillary has already loaned herself money, appealed for money in Indiana, and apparently lately loaned herself more. It is beginning to look as though the vote difference in Indiana will be in the thousands, maybe in Obama's favor.

Wednesday is going to be a very tough day for the Clintons. All arguments for the super delegates are now gone, flatly gone. Where does Clinton go for money? How does she justify doing further damage to the almost inevitable nominee? It is still in the super delegates' hands; they have free choice - of sorts. If Hillary makes a contest of it, W VA and KY will probably go to her, OR will not, MT is showing signs of not and SD is questionable. These results are coming in with Hillary claiming to have hit her stride and the media has beaten Obama over the head with Rev Wright. Her best against his worst left her wanting.

I don't care if she stays or goes. I don't. I do care about the conduct of the campaign and her usage of Republican talking points and pandering simply cannot continue. It cannot continue to be the case that a Democratic candidate smears another Democrat with Republican junk. Whatever "legacy" the Clintons have is in serious jeopardy now, more of the same could not be worse. There are a great number of Democrats who will not forget the 08 Primary and how it was run. The available slams on Hillary that Obama left out of his campaign hugely outnumber and outweigh the stupid ones Hillary used, that will be remembered. The previous outcomes of Terry McAuliff's version of Democratic politics will have been reinforced by how this Primary has played out.

The Primary is not over until either one drops out or the delegates take the number over the threshold. I make no representation that a winner has been declared tonight, but there is no longer any metric for Hillary's campaign to use with super delegates. Naturally, the media is now beating the drum of the faux "dream ticket" of Obama/Clinton. I've said before it is one of the stupidest ideas I know of. What Hillary Clinton will make of the results of 5/06/08 is not within my crystal ball, we'll see after a bit.

Well, new Clinton stuff, they never formally scheduled morning TV so they can't formally cancel them - what? What are her super delegates going to have to say to her? I'll put this post up with 95% reporting and Hillary leading by 1%. Oops, 99% in Clinton by 20K. +2 delegates versus +15 in NC

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