Monday, November 07, 2011

GOP ABM* Strikes

*Anyone But Mitt

With Huntsman deep in the weeds, Mitt seems the only "establishment" candidate to the GOP. That is just plain unacceptable and thus:
Trump Bump
Bachmann Bump
Perry Bump
Cain Bump

And now ... MSM is on about a Newt bump. A bump for the tired old idea (I use that word extremely loosely - fantasies) man; a guy whose personal behavior most of them would loath and whose campaign is transparently about self-promotion. The Media Pundits may ignore this stuff but even if Newt moves up some I strongly doubt he can strike any emotional chords with the ABMs nor does he have real money to sustain himself without a real connection to emotion. I think the Media is playing the "it's his turn" theme rather than looking at Newt and the ABMs.

The sex stuff isn't going to do huge damage to Cain, but he will implode at some point with that group and never ever forget that he is ... well, black. What I do think is that if Perry can stop doing things the way he has been he's going to be their guy. He's white, he's from Texass, and he's ... hmmmm ... pretty ... and he's white... Oh yeah, he does have some real money. And even if he is stupid he might be able to stop doing it in front of voters.

When something is operating in a mode like ABM, an entire negative, staying power helps - that and an ability to not do something stupid. You've got people looking for someplace to land, not an actual enthusiasm for, and about all that requires is an ability to stay in front of them and some sort of "charm." Charm is another of those words I'm using loosely since it can easily include a 'go for the nuts' type persona they wouldn't want as a dinner guest - supposedly a Perry characteristic.

I'm not presenting this as some sort of prediction - it's silly to do that with crazy people; not that I like Mitt a bit, either. The Obama Campaign seems to think Mitt will be the one but I'm less sure. They may well have fallen into the trap of using reason in regard to craziness. I'm inclined to think an ABM could pull it off, especially considering Mitt's consistent 23%.

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